I work on two related fields: (1) decision-making under conditions of severe uncertainty, and (2) scientific modelling, especially as a source of evidence for decisions. My recent work has focused on climate science, and in particular on the prediction of hurricanes striking North America.
More broadly, I am interested in the social epistemology of science: how it should be organised, and how it should interact with the rest of society. Much of my work can be characterised as formal epistemology (i.e., I use mathematical tools), though much of my interest is in non-ideal, messy situations in which our favoured formal tools fare poorly.
A copy of my CV is available here.
I help organise the LSE’s Conjectures and Refutations seminar series.
Before beginning my PhD I worked as a management consultant for Bain & Co., and then in the strategy team for London-based property developers Lodha UK. I have a Master’s in theoretical physics from the University of Cambridge, and my undergraduate degree was in Physics and Philosophy at the University of the Witwatersrand.
I also work as a freelance consultant, on strategy, management and decision-making.
Work in progress papers
- Making confident decisions with model ensembles (submitted)
- Formal epistemology as normative modelling
- Opinion pooling and the novice/2-expert problem
- Against aggregation (of models)
- Working paper on fictionalism about scientific models
- “Making confident decisions with models” – PSA Seattle, November 2018
- “Formal epistemology as an exercise in modelling” – LSE graduate seminar, September 2018
- “Making confident decisions with models” – ETH Atmospheric and Climate Science Colloquium (with Roman Frigg), May 2018
- “Making confident decisions with models” – LSE Choice Group, April 2018
- “Against Model Aggregation” – Models and Simulations 8, University of South Carolina, March 2018