I work on two related fields: (1) decision-making under conditions of severe uncertainty, and (2) scientific modelling, especially as a source of evidence for decisions. My recent work has focused on climate science, and in particular on the prediction of hurricanes striking North America.
More broadly, I am interested in the social epistemology of science: how it should be organised, and how it should interact with the rest of society. Much of my work can be characterised as formal epistemology (i.e., I use mathematical tools), though much of my interest is in non-ideal, messy situations in which our favoured formal tools fare poorly.
A copy of my CV is available here.
I help organise the LSE’s Conjectures and Refutations seminar series.
Before beginning my PhD I worked as a management consultant for Bain & Co., and then in the strategy team for London-based property developers Lodha UK. I have a Master’s in theoretical physics from the University of Cambridge, and my undergraduate degree was in Physics and Philosophy at the University of the Witwatersrand.
I also work as a freelance consultant, on strategy, management and decision-making.
- “Making confident decisions with ensembles” – EPSA 2019 Geneva [slides]
- “Formal epistemology as modelling” – PROGIC 2019 Frankfurt
- “Formal Epistemology as Modelling” – FEW 2019 Turin [poster]
- “Making confident decisions with models” – CHESS Durham [slides]
- “Scoring rules and expert disagreement” – Masterclass on social epistemology Glasglow [handout]
Work in progress papers
- Making confident decisions with model ensembles (R&R)
- Formal epistemology as normative modelling (draft)
- Expert disagreement: aggregation and scoring rules for real agents (draft)