I work on two related fields: (1) decision-making under conditions of severe uncertainty, and (2) scientific modelling, especially as a source of evidence for decisions. My recent work has focused on climate science, and in particular on the prediction of hurricanes striking North America.
More broadly, I am interested in social aspects of how we manage uncertainty. This includes interests in the interaction between laypeople and experts, expert disagreement, and social strategies for minimising uncertainty. Much of my work can be characterised as formal epistemology (i.e., I use mathematical tools), though much of my interest is in non-ideal, messy situations in which our favoured formal tools fare poorly.
A copy of my CV is available here.
I started the LSE’s Conjectures and Refutations seminar series, along with Charles Beasley.
Before beginning my PhD I worked as a management consultant for Bain & Co., and then in the strategy team for London-based property developers Lodha UK. I have a Master’s degree in theoretical physics from the University of Cambridge, and my undergraduate degree was in Physics and Philosophy at the University of the Witwatersrand.
I have also worked as a freelance consultant, on strategy, management and decision-making.
Expert deference as a belief revision schema [preprint, forthcoming in Synthese]
Making confident decisions with model ensembles [preprint, forthcoming in Philosophy of Science]
- “Modelling in moral philosophy” – Stockholm Higher Seminar in Practical Philosophy / Oct 2020
Work in progress papers