by Joe | Feb 13, 2019 | Uncategorised
Why do people continue to work for management consulting firms? I used to, so I don’t mean this as random sniping at other people’s life choices. I’ve been reflecting on how we reason about the risk of being involved in wrongdoing in our work....
by Joe | Aug 29, 2017 | Climate science, Research
David Stainforth argued in a pair of co-authored articles in 2007 that climate models were so uncertain no individual model should be taken seriously as a predictor of a single event (in that case, a temperature rise). This post explores the arguments presented, and...
by Joe | Aug 29, 2017 | Climate science, Research
A major approach – perhaps the major approach – to the treatment of models in an ensemble is via skill scores. These measure the accuracy of a prediction when compared to an observation. The motivating question behind their development is this: how can one compare...
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