My research focuses on policy decision-making about highly uncertain sciences. I have done a lot of work with one case study: insurance against damage from hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
I am also interested in formal epistemology more broadly, and in the philosophy of scientific models.
My blog contains a section of research-related posts. You can find more formal examples of my work below.
Work in progress
- Making confident decisions with model ensembles – joint paper with Roman Frigg and Richard Bradley (submitted)
- We apply the “confidence” approach developed by Hill and Bradley to the case of hurricane models, demonstrating a method that can be generalised to decision-making with ensembles of structurally different models
- Formal epistemology as modelling (draft available)
- I am developing an analysis formal philosophy (i.e., using mathematics) as instances of modelling. I argue that they should be analysed and understood in terms of prominent approaches to scientific models in the philosophy of science literature, such as the DEKI account of representation
- I have a working draft available discussing an account of normative modelling, applying it to the theory of partial belief, and drawing conclusions for the debate over precise vs. imprecise probabilism
- Scoring rules, expert disagreement and values (draft available)
- I examine the problem of expert disagreement, and whether opinion pooling is a viable method for policymakers to resolve such disagreement.
- I argue that there is significant utility to such methods, but that they require technical and value judgements in the selection of a scoring rule. Policymakers should develop these technical skills, and the discussion on opinion pooling should reflect that it is not a purely epistemic procedure.
- Against aggregation
- I argue against the aggregation of model outputs using a weighted average, looking at the case of hurricane model
My Master’s research was in particle physics.
- (Defunct) Working paper on effective field theories as a method in Weak physics (2014)
- Analysis of the lepton polarisation asymmetries of B¯ → K¯ 2(1430) ℓ+ ℓ− decay, Eur. Phys. J. C (2011) 71: 1751