My research focuses on policy decision-making about highly uncertain sciences. I have done a lot of work with one case study: insurance against damage from hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

I am also interested in formal epistemology more broadly, and in the philosophy of scientific models.

My blog contains a section of research-related posts. You can find more formal examples of my work below.

 

Work in progress

  1. Making confident decisions with model ensembles – joint paper with Roman Frigg and Richard Bradley (submitted)
    • We apply the “confidence” approach developed by Hill and Bradley to the case of hurricane models, demonstrating a method that can be generalised to decision-making with ensembles of structurally different models
  2. Formal epistemology as modelling (draft available)
    • I am developing an analysis formal philosophy (i.e., using mathematics) as instances of modelling. I argue that they should be analysed and understood in terms of prominent approaches to scientific models in the philosophy of science literature, such as the DEKI account of representation
    • I have a working draft available discussing an account of normative modelling, applying it to the theory of partial belief, and drawing conclusions for the debate over precise vs. imprecise probabilism
  3. Scoring rules, expert disagreement and values (draft available) 
    • I examine the problem of expert disagreement, and whether opinion pooling is a viable method for policymakers to resolve such disagreement. 
    • I argue that there is significant utility to such methods, but that they require technical and value judgements in the selection of a scoring rule. Policymakers should develop these technical skills, and the discussion on opinion pooling should reflect that it is not a purely epistemic procedure. 
  4. Against aggregation
    • I argue against the aggregation of model outputs using a weighted average, looking at the case of hurricane model

 

Physics research

My Master’s research was in particle physics.